Download or read book Time-Varying Transition Probabilities for Markov Regime Switching Models written by Marco Bazzi and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 0 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: We propose a new Markov switching model with time-varying transitions probabilities. The novelty of our model is that the transition probabilities evolve over time by means of an observation driven model. The innovation of the time-varying probability is generated by the score of the predictive likelihood function. We show how the model dynamics can be readily interpreted. We investigate the performance of the model in a Monte Carlo study and show that the model is successful in estimating a range of different dynamic patterns for unobserved regime switching probabilities. We also illustrate the new methodology in an empirical setting by studying the dynamic mean and variance behaviour of US industrial production growth.