Download or read book Integrating Statistical and System Dynamics Modelling to Analyse the Impacts of Climate Change on Rice Production in West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia written by Muhamad Bahri and published by . This book was released on 2017 with total page 431 pages. Available in PDF, EPUB and Kindle. Book excerpt: Climate change, manifested as temperature rise and rainfall change, will pose significant challenges to rice farmers, leading to a possible rice shortage under a changing climate. This research aims to understand the impacts of climate variability and change on rice production through the rest of this century using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, and combination of statistical and system dynamic modelling. The area of study is West Nusa Tenggara, Indonesia. Wetland and dryland farming types are assessed separately because they have different rice varieties and different agricultural practices. Overall, the research seeks to answer the question: How will climate change and climate variability affect rice production? Additional questions investigated are (1) What are the most significant supply uncertainties associated with a changing climate? and (2) What are possible solutions for reducing the impacts of climate change on rice production?. To answer these research questions, this study deals with three main research areas. First, based on observed data (1976-2011), this study developed regression-based statistical models in understanding the impacts of climate change on rice yield in West Nusa Tenggara. Statistical models find that the negative impacts of increased minimum temperature on rice yield are statistically significant. By contrast, the effects of maximum temperature on rice yield are not statistically significant. A key reason for this is that the highest maximum temperature (320C) in the observed period (1976-2011) was lower than 350C, a rice threshold for maximum temperature. By 2090 (2077-2100), rice yield in wetland and dryland is projected to decrease by about 3% (RCP2.6 scenario), 4% (RCP4.5 scenario), 5% (RCP6.0 scenario) and 14% (RCP8.5 scenario). Second, a system dynamics model was developed to assess the impacts of climate change on three issues including rice yield, harvested areas and rice production by 2090 (2077-2100)...